China Plays Long Game With Softer Response to Taiwan President Visiting U.S.

On April 5, 2023, after a bipartisan meeting at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California, U.S. Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy and Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen arrive for a press conference. Frederic J. Brown / AFP/Getty Images BY CHARLIE CAMPBELL / SINGAPORE APRIL 6, 2023 5:00 AM EDT U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy greeted Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley on Wednesday, declaring that "our bond is stronger now than at any time or point in my lifetime." He did so while sporting huge grins and basking in the rays of

The Asia-Pacific region took a collective breath during the meeting. China considers self-administering Taiwan its sovereign region and loathes any ties it has with unfamiliar authorities. Beijing responded to Tsai's meeting with Nancy Pelosi, McCarthy's predecessor, in Taipei last year with unprecedented military drills, a trade embargo, and a diplomatic freeze.

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Without a doubt, China had cautioned of a "unflinching reaction" to the Simi Valley meeting, what while formally informal, was the first of its sort on U.S. soil since Washington changed conciliatory acknowledgment from Taipei to Beijing in 1979. Xu Xueyuan, the chargé d'affaires at Beijing's embassy in the U.S., told reporters last week that the United States was "playing with fire" regarding Taiwan.

The reality, however, has been more muted. On Wednesday, 14 Chinese warplanes and three warships were seen near Taiwan following isolated military exercises on Tuesday. Two of the warplanes entered the southwest of Taiwan's air defense identification zone. On Thursday, China's second plane carrying warship, the Shandong, was spotted 200 nautical miles (370 km) off Taiwan's east coast. It pales in comparison to the belligerent response to Pelosi's visit, which resulted in five days of live-fire drills and missile tests that completely encircled Taiwan, some of which were located less than ten miles from the country's coast.

The shift in message is explicit and revealing: Firstly, the fact that Tsai's decision to meet McCarthy in the United States rather than Taipei is less of an insult and thus requires less of a response; and, by extension, that islanders have control over ties across the Strait. The latter is crucial as the January presidential elections approach, when campaigning will focus primarily on how to manage relations with China.

Russell Hsiao, executive director of the Global Taiwan Institute think tank, asserts that cross-strait relations will "become much more of a front and center issue in Taiwan's politics."

Tsai cannot run for a third term in office. In any case, her China-cynic Vote based Moderate Party (DPP) is abhorred by Beijing, which would prefer to see the supportive of China Patriots, or KMT, return to drive all things considered. The 1992 Consensus, a political fudge that both Beijing and Taipei agree that they belong to the same country, despite disagreements over which authority is legitimate, was the basis for flourishing ties during the KMT's final term before Tsai's victory in 2016. Even though Tsai's DPP has pragmatically rescinded its desire for formal independence for the island of 23 million people because China has pledged to respond with invasion, it does not recognize the 1992 Consensus.

There is no doubt which party better represents Taiwanese society. 78% of islanders, according to a survey conducted in March by the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation (TPOF), identify as Taiwanese rather than Chinese or a mix of the two. However, there are also a lot of worries about war with China, so the question of identity and security cannot be separated. The KMT will try to convince voters that they are better positioned to protect Taiwan's de facto independence by using the deteriorating relations across the Strait.

Another Taiwanese President's So-Called "Visit" This week was about 6,000 miles away from Simi Valley: that of Tsai's KMT predecessor, Ma Ying-jeou, who led a honeymoon period of cross-Strait ties from 2008 to 2016, when he signed 23 trade agreements, opened direct flights, and business and educational exchanges multiplied. Ma set out on an unprecedented 12-day, five-city tour of China on March 27, which included visiting the graves of his ancestors. It was also officially unofficial and included a meeting with the head of China's Taiwan Affairs office. This is the first time a former president of Taiwan has been invited to the People's Republic. On March 28, Ma stated, "We all belong to the Chinese race."

Beijing has carefully stage-managed Ma's mainland visit to demonstrate to Taiwan voters that the KMT has the potential to forge a new path for cross-Strait ties. As a result, Beijing has reinstated some direct flights across the Taiwan Strait and lifted import restrictions on Taiwanese agricultural products in recent weeks. The KMT will be eager to contrast this emerging relationship with Taiwan's declining international standing under Tsai. The island has lost nine diplomatic allies to Beijing since she took office in 2016, most recently Honduras on March 26, leaving only 13 remaining.

Eric Huang, a KMT adviser who was previously in charge of the party's Washington representative office, says, "Ma's goodwill trip should show that the KMT has the willingness to maintain a stable and peaceful relationship." We comprehend the significance of keeping up with Taiwan's lifestyle, we comprehend we want to develop our protections, and yet we see the worth and shrewdness in correspondence."

Ma Ying-jeou, the former president of Taiwan, addresses journalists on March 27, 2023, prior to his trip to China from the Taoyuan international airport. Sam Yeh — AFP/Getty Pictures)

Taiwan's previous President Mama Ying-jeou addresses writers before his visit to China from the Taoyuan global air terminal on Walk 27, 2023. The DDP's counterargument is that the 1992 Consensus is a fig leaf for eventual reunification. Sam Yeh—AFP/Getty Images Vincent Chao, a DPP councilor in Taipei and Tsai's foreign relations adviser, says, "Having strong bipartisan friendships with the United States and other democratic partners around the world and internationalizing the cross-Strait situation will be best for our national interests." The most effective means of preventing Chinese aggression would be this.

However, Taiwanese citizens are wary of being used as a pawn in the escalating standoff between China and the United States, in which Democrats and Republicans are increasingly competing to appear more hawkish. According to a March TPOF poll, 58.6% of respondents agreed that U.S. support was driven by American national interest, which may differ from the island's interests.

Nevertheless, the KMT must demonstrate that it can strengthen ties with China while upholding Taiwan's de facto independence, values, and cherished democracy, which presents a challenging balance. The student-led Sunflower Movement occupied Taiwan's legislature for more than three weeks in 2014 to protest a trade deal mediated by Ma that they feared would increase Chinese influence too much. Over 100,000 protesters waved banners outside in Taipei's streets, such as: Save a majority rules government, don't sell our country."

Candidates for the KMT will be able to use the public's reaction to Ma's trip as a valuable indicator of how much to push the pro-China message. The DPP and KMT are currently tied in opinion polls, despite the DPP's crushing defeat in the local elections in November. Eventually, cross-Waterway ties isn't the main issue influencing everything, with a hailing economy and pandemic stumbles likewise on electors' psyches.

Furthermore, despite the KMT's emphasis on strengthening ties, Chinese belligerence has historically swayed voters in favor of the DPP. The DPP's victory in the 2016 election was foreshadowed by the Sunflower Movement, and Tsai's reelection was helped by massive protests in semi-autonomous Hong Kong four years later against Beijing's erosion of freedoms.

According to political scientist Wen-Ti Sung, who works for the Australian National University and is based in Taiwan, Beijing-friendly voices rely on maintaining a line between appearing friendly and blatantly bowing to China. That hole must be kept up with if Beijing talks and acts moderately delicately toward Taiwan."

With eight months to go until the elections, the question is whether China can maintain its nice guy image for that long.

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