Bitcoin. Source: According to on-chain data provided by crypto analytics firm Glassnode, major cryptocurrency exchanges have been experiencing net negative BTC flows into their Bitcoin wallets over the past few days.
Streams into trade wallets had been for the most part sure since mid-February and the inversion could be an indication that opinion in the Bitcoin market is getting to the next level.
This is because when investors or traders want to sell, they tend to move their Bitcoin to exchange wallets, which results in net inflows to exchanges. However, when they want to hoard, they tend to move their Bitcoin off of exchanges.
een net exchange flows and price performance, some are still interpreting the recent shift in flows as yet another warning sign that the Bitcoin price is on the verge of surpassing $30,000 in value.
Bitcoin was last changing hands near $28,000 on significant trades, up around 70% on the year.
Is Bitcoin on the verge of surpassing $30,000?
Bitcoin analysts have a lot of other reasons why they think the BTC price will soon take out $30,000 with its next leg up.
Starting with macro tailwinds, which were the main reason why the price went up last month. There are still worries about a possible bank crisis in the US (and around the world), which keeps people buying Bitcoin as a safe haven.
In the meantime, a string of weaker-than-anticipated US data releases this week—the manufacturing and services ISM reports, JOLTs Jobs Data, and ADP National Employment figures—have weighed on the US dollar and yields by increasing bets on a US recession later this year.
Markets have further reduced their bets on further Fed tightening as a result. According to the CME's Fed Watch Tool, money markets predict a 44% chance that the Fed will proceed with one more hike next month.
In addition, money markets continue to place their bets on a rate-cutting cycle beginning in the second half of the year.
Cryptocurrency prices have historically risen in response to bets on a more dovish Fed, a weaker dollar, and lower yields.
So long as upcoming US data, such as Friday's jobs report, do not contradict the narrative that the US is in a recession and the situation with banks remains sensitive, macro looks set to continue to be a significant Bitcoin tailwind.
The Bitcoin underlying network is showing signs of strength at the same time that the macro environment becomes more favorable for Bitcoin.
Glassnode says that the 7-Day Moving Average Number of Daily Active Addresses has reached over 1 million, which is the highest level in nearly a year.
The number of new addresses on the 7-day moving average is close to its highest level since May 2021.
In the mean time, the 7-Day Moving Normal Number of Day to day Exchanges just leaped to its most significant level since mid 2021 of almost 350,000.
Strength in Bitcoin network movement recommends more individuals are utilizing the organization, proposing more interest and a higher incentive for Bitcoin.
Where Will the BTC Price Go Next?
The technical picture for Bitcoin in the near future is a little mixed. The 21-day moving average (DMA) has recently provided good support, and the cryptocurrency is still trading strongly above all of its major moving averages.
Additionally, its 14-Day Relative Strength Index is not overbought, indicating that there is room for upside without a high risk of profit-taking.
However, given that price action has formed into a pennant structure in recent days that could break out in either direction, things for BTC could go either way.
Although the aforementioned fundamentals and on-chain factors point to the possibility of further upside, the price of Bitcoin has been experiencing bearish divergence with its RSI, which some view as a sign of bearishness.
A downside breakout could lead to a quick retest of the resistance-turned-support zone in the $26,500 area, as well as possibly the crucial $25,500 support zone below that, which is located in line with the 50DMA.
However, In the current market environment, anticipate significant demand for any such dips. However, Expect Dip Buyer Demand to Remain Strong
The "golden cross" seen in early February and Bitcoin's recent strong bounce from its 200DMA (and Realized Price) below $20,000 are very bullish long-term technical signs.
In the meantime, a number of longer-term, on-chain indicators, such as those in Glassnode's "Recovering from a Bitcoin Bear" dashboard, are all evidencing the onset of a new bull market.
Additionally, an examination of Bitcoin's longer-term market cycles suggests the emergence of a new bull market.
As per the Bitcoin Stock-to-Stream evaluating model, the Bitcoin market cycle is around four years, which shows an expected cost level in view of the quantity of BTC accessible in the market comparative with the sum being mined every year.
In the next post-halving market cycle, Bitcoin's fair price could rise to more than $500k, or approximately 18 times its current level.
Finally, Blockchaincenter.net's well-known Bitcoin Rainbow Chart demonstrates that Bitcoin is currently in the "BUY!" category. zone, which had just emerged from the "Basically a Fire Sale" zone at the end of 2022. As such, the model proposes that Bitcoin is slowly recuperating from being exceptionally oversold. Bitcoin was able to reach the "Sell" level during its most recent bull run. Truly, SELL!" zone.
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